What a difference a few days makes. After mild fall temperatures and numerous reports of outstanding action to the east, Old Man Winter announced his presence with authority with the current frigid blast. Air and water temperatures have plunged as a result and with strong northerly winds predicted through the weekend, winter patterns are likely here to stay.
But the good news first. In the backcountry creeks and shorelines in the refuge, the redfish and trout were on fire last weekend. Paddletail jigs, touts and smaller swim baits generated the most action early with the lower water and cooler conditions. As the day wore on, though, the topwater bite kicked off. Mullet patterns and the classic white/red head produced healthy trout, many 20 inches or better, plus upper to overslot chunky reds. The fish were slurping down flies, too. Water clarity is exceptional east of the St. Marks River.
The western portion of the bay near Panacea was slow, in contrast. Tons of mullet are around, but the trout were small and scattered and the reds few and far between. The water was somewhat silty and mats of floating grass were still present. A few bluefish were lingering in depths less than five feet but they’re probably halfway to St. Pete by now.
So the question will be, is this cold snap strong enough to push fish into the coastal rivers? There were a few Spanish mackerel reported in the St. Marks, so odds are yes, the trout and reds will likely follow. A good strategy would be to start near the mouths of the rivers around the oyster bars and slowly work up river. The mid-morning negative lows will expose lots of shallow mud flats and oyster mounds that will warm with the sun. Once those areas flood with the afternoon incoming water, the fish will be on top looking for extra warmth and food. Weedless spoons, or jerk baits and shad tails rigged weedless will minimize the tackle loss to the sharp shells and snags.
Flounder will be lurking in the deeper holes and funnel points between bars. Hop a 2.75 DOA shrimp or Sureketch tout (gold glitter, new penny, white/pink tail) slowly along the bottom for these tasty flat fish. Black sea bass are another possible by-catch. Big sheepshead are showing up around rock piles and other structure. They will sometimes take a shrimp lure, especially with Pro-cure sweetener, but real shrimp or fiddler crabs are seldom refused. Small shrimp and crab flies will also fool the convicts.
The next few months with the negative low tides and clear visibility are ideal for scouting new areas and marking hazards on the bottom machine. Those same conditions also require choosing boat ramps carefully as some channels like the Lighthouse may be un-navigable for hours until the tides start coming in.