If the advance forecast holds true, it looks like a seasonal adjustment is on tap. The expected cold front will usher in breezy north winds and temperatures more typical for November. That will cool off the coastal water and trigger better action on the flats and creeks.
Last weekend was another challenging one with strong winds and murky water. Anglers who ventured out, mainly on Sunday, found a few fish but the bite was off despite the new moon tides. Trout are scattered and are feeding on shrimp lures like the DOA 1/4-ounce or 2.75 variety, fished plain or under a popping/clacker cork. New penny, gold glitter and near clear are the most realistic and proven patterns right now. A pinfish under a float is another viable option. The fish were typically found in depths less than six feet.
Redfish are schooling more but haven’t truly turned on, either. Expect that to change with the cool front after the barometric pressure stabilizes. Gold or watermelon ADL willow blade weedless spoons tossed methodically around oyster bars like those throughout the mouths of the coastal rivers and backcountry creeks will produce. Soft-plastic jerk baits rigged weedless with a worm hook or nose-hooked with a circle or live bait hook are also effective.
Flounder and black sea bass are plentiful. Bounce a white or white/red tail Sureketch jig along the bottom of drop-offs or pot holes. Arkansas glow or Stark Naked CAL shad tails pinned to a light jig head are a dead ringer for mud minnows, if you don’t want to mess with the real thing.
The cold front will likely signal the last of the seasonal visitors. Spanish mackerel, pompano, tripletail and tarpon will all be hightailing it south. There may be a few bluefish and jack crevalle lagging but they won’t be here much longer, either.
State officials have added another red snapper window due to Nestor’s previous blow-out. It’ll be Nov. 2-3, but be careful out there. Coming on the heels of St. Mark’s Stone Crab Festival last Saturday will be the Florida Seafood Festival in Apalachicola Nov. 1-2 with lots to do for the whole family.
The waxing crescent moon phase won’t do any favors with strong tides this weekend. Weak mid-day lows will be more pronounced with the North winds, so choose launch sites carefully. Expect a brief peak feeding window right after daylight, followed by an average opportunity early each afternoon for about an hour as the moon rises. The temperature changes may over-ride the normal solunar predictions to produce a hot bite. But you won’t know unless you go.